Week Eleven: Post-Turkey Recap

Grab the protein popcorn, we’re watching ChatGPT’s WAU!

Housekeeping

Welcome to the eleventh edition of Venture Vantage. We’ll be exploring topics related to tech and the venture ecosystem.

I would like to begin by atoning for my sins: I missed last week. As it turns out, it’s hard to type after dislocating your shoulder with stitches in your hand. Anywho, we’re back.

As always, please hit me back with feedback and comments—I’m constantly seeking ways to make this newsletter a more valuable read.

Diving right in and keeping things brief:

News, Deals, and Pretty Things

Celebrity popcorn, or something

Context:

• Khloé Kardashian and Kris Jenner are raising $10M for a snack business, Khloud. They have $4.49M raised so far.

• It’s unclear what the company will be making, but trademark filing suggest it’ll be a better-for-you protein popcorn or protein granola.

• Bryan Baum, a serial entrepreneur and co-founder of the venture firm K5 Global, is listed as CEO, per the SEC filing. Michael Kives, the other co-founder of K5 who helped Kendall Jenner launch 818 Tequila, is also listed on the SEC filing as being involved in the company.

Vantage:

• This is yet another departure from the classic celebrity tequila brand, following Tom Holland’s BERO. It seems like celebrities are even jumping on the better-for-you snack wave.

• I’m surprised the Kardashians couldn’t fill the round overnight. I assume allocations are hard to get and participation is by invite only.

ChatGPT’s milestones

Context:

• ChatGPT hit 300 million monthly active users this week. They hit the 200 million mark about three months ago, and 100 million mark about a year ago, proving out exponential growth.

• There are about 10 million ChatGPT Plus users that pay $20/month for a premium subscription, and another 1 million higher-priced business members. Just these two tiers of subscription bring in about $2.7B a year to OpenAI.

Vantage:

• The exponential growth of ChatGPT is impressive. It’ll be interesting to see how it penetrates large international markets, despite it already having the ability to work in 80 different languages.

• OpenAI still will have to drive more revenue growth to be able to substantiate its raising valuations. It has a long way to go.

Founders Fund GP steps down

Context:

• After 17 years, Brian Singerman, the GP at Founders Fund who backed Affirm and Oscar Health, announced on Tuesday he’s going to be stepping away from the fund.

• This is the second big departure from FF this year, after Keith Rabois stepped down in January.

• Singerman is going to be transitioning to become a Partner Emeritus, meaning that he’ll still have some involvement, just not day-to-day operational involvement in the fund.

• Other GPs like Trae Stephens and Napoleon Ta are making an effort to step into the spotlight and get their hands dirty with FF portcos.

Vantage:

• I strongly believe the post-COVID era (2023 and beyond) will be the rise of the Emerging Managers, and this is proof that big funds are not retaining talent like they could a few years ago.

• There’s a growing difference between the eager and skeptical investors: those who will follow each other into hot deals at high valuations, and those who are searching for the diamond in the rough. More recently, the latter seems to be yielding better financial results.

Deals that caught my eye

Here’s the latest and greatest:

• HappyRobot is raising a $15.6M Series A led by a16z to build an AI agent focused on the logistics industry that can make calls and negotiate prices.

• Fello, a platform that connects someone struggling with a circumstance with someone who has successfully navigated that circumstance, raised a $10.4M round from 62Ventures, Capital Factory, Katalyst Capital, Offline Ventures, and others.

  

• D-Fend Solutions, an Israeli defense company working on anti-drone tech, raised $31M from Israel Growth Partners and Vertex Ventures.

• ModifyHealth, a food-as-medicine platform that delivers meals to patients, raised a $13.5M Series C led by the Company Foundation.

Rapid Fire

• Context: Back in January of this year, Musk tried to take an $56B stock option pay package from Tesla. It was shot down by the courts. Naturally, Musk appealed the decision. Just this week, it was shot down again. | Vantage: Different investors may have different reactions to this. However you dice it, it could be a signal to early-stage founders that they may want to think twice about incorporating in Delaware.

• Context: Ramp is considering a company-facilitated secondary sale. This sale at an $11B valuation would be a 35% markup from their last high in 2022. Just 15 months ago, the company experienced a down round. | Vantage: This is a signal that fintech valuations have climbed in recent months. However, Ramp has a ways to go to compete with European Revolut’s $45B valuation from August.

• Context: The Info is reporting that "(Brex) is burning 30% as much cash as it was at the start of this year and is on a path to become cash flow positive within roughly 12 months. The company now has 10 years of cash available." | Vantage: This is really impressive, if Brex has managed to maintain strong employee morale and user retention through the haircut.

White Hot

Human Health:

• Devices that help us track, monitor, and understand eating habits without the need for manually logging data.

• A meal service that doesn’t suck. Healthy, cheap, good quality homemade cooking. Never frozen, always fresh, with simple recipes. If I was to leave Fortify, I would start a meal delivery company.

• Non-gross microbiome tests. Whether it’s swallowing a smart pill or blowing into a tube, we need a better way to get accurate tests of our gut microbiomes.

Future of Work:

• A product that allows people to not have to schlep devices back and forth between home and work. A huge number of Americans have a hybrid work schedule, and dragging your laptop to and from home sucks. Imagine if everything just magically synced across devices…

• I think walkie talkie-like communication needs to make a comeback, especially for remote work. There should be a way to have instant communication with your team, without always being on a call or having to wait for them to answer.

Infrastructure:

• Airport food options suck. Eating on the plane sucks. You get ripped off, there are little to no healthy options, and end up eating really gross food. If someone can revolutionize in-transit hospitality, they’d make a killing.

• Snow removal devices that make it easier for people to keep their properties & driveways snow-free. It was done with lawn mowing, why can’t it be done with snow?

• Automated car maintenance scanning. Imagine an MRI for your car—an automated diagnostic scan that could tell you everything that needs attention, from low windshield washer fluid to a worn engine gasket.

Some cool stuff on my radar

Man, so much these last few weeks.

• I got the Wahoo Elemnt Ace last week, just like I said I would, and it’s honestly kind of underwhelming. I think I would have preferred to get the Garmin Edge 1050.

• Just signed up for Superpower today (shoutout big dog HV). It’s expensive, but seems like it’ll be worth it to help solve some issues doctors haven’t/don’t give proper attention. Skip the wait here.

• I don’t know about you, but I miss the Touch Bar on my Mac. Like, a lot. The Flexbar seems to be the closest thing I’ve seen to keep the memory of the Touch Bar alive.

  

• Are you a chronic sauna user? Afraid to fry your Apple Watch or cook your Rolex in the sauna? Man, have I got the thing for you! This Casio sauna watch is very purpose built for exactly what you need.

Continued Reads

This week’s continued read is 10x Is Easier Than 2x by Dan Sullivan. A snippet:

“An obvious challenge people face is that they don’t know what they want. They’re far too busy justifying what they think they need. They haven’t learned to be brutally honest with themselves and others. They’re still living in fear.”

Read it here.

This is not connected to the book, but it kind of is: in a video I was watching, someone spoke about how the Lubavitcher Rebbe juggled all his various tasks with such calmness. His advice was to overwhelm yourself so much, that your system for getting things done breaks. To stuff your capacity so much, that it shatters. Once the walls break, you can rebuild them to make more space, and rearrange the components inside to take up less space. Then, you’ll be left with more capacity than you have ever had before. Only really pushing ourselves can lead us to a place of comfort.

Closing

Thanks for taking time out of your Wednesday to read.

As always, you can find me on X and LinkedIn, and I’d love to hear from you via email. Whether it’s talking startups or just shooting the shit, I’m always happy to connect.

Onto the next!

//Eli